Document Type : research paper
In the next step, based on the effective and affected variables, the most important descriptors of the research problem are identified and three possible states are developed for each of the variables obtained from MICMAC software in the Scenario Wizard environment. Then, each state is ranked using the expert opinion and the scenario is compiled. Based on this, three possible final states are obtained, which include the most desirable scenario, the middle state, and the most undesirable scenario, respectively. Finally, the status of effective variables in three states of future scenarios is examined and identified. The results of the three scenarios indicate that in the first scenario, homogenous employment compatible and incompatible with nature has made an attempt for land allocation so that conflicts between different stakeholders are resolved and natural resources are not harmed. By weighing and determining the competency, it is found that the second scenario, namely the environmentally friendly employment scenario, such as creating small conversion and complementary workshops, developing tourism and ecotourism jobs and similar jobs are more adaptable to the environment and of higher sustainability. In the third scenario, the situation of jobs and the extent of its damage to natural resources is worse than the previous two scenarios. In this scenario, the threat of environmental degradation is higher and with the expansion of jobs, the rate of erosion, damage to natural resources and also the change of use of farms will be evident.