Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Environmental Research Institute, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Guilan Province, Rasht, Iran
2
Research Expert, Department of Regional Studies, Environmental Research Institute, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Guilan Province, Rasht, Iran
3
Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Guilan, Guilan Province, Rasht, Iran
4
Research Expert, Environmental Research Institute, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Guilan Province, Rasht, Iran
Abstract
Purpose: The present study aims to plan land use - land allocation - to determine the optimal spaces to develop sustainable rural employment in East Guilan.
Methods: in this research, the effective and affected variables are first identified, and their general perspective is drawn by compiling optimal maps with the help of future research methods. In the next step, based on the effective and affected variables, the most important descriptors of the research problem are identified, and three possible states are developed for each of the variables obtained from MICMAC software in the Scenario Wizard environment.
Results: Then, each state was ranked using the expert opinion, and the scenario was compiled. Based on this, three possible final states are obtained, including the most desirable, middle, and most undesirable. Finally, the status of effective variables in three states of future scenarios was examined and identified.
Conclusion: The exploration of the three scenarios indicates that in the first scenario, homogenous employment compatible and incompatible with nature has attempted land allocation so that conflicts between different stakeholders are resolved, and natural resources are not harmed. By weighing and determining the competency, it is found that the second scenario, namely the environmentally friendly employment scenario, such as creating small conversion and complementary workshops, developing tourism and ecotourism jobs, and similar jobs, are more adaptable to the environment and have higher sustainability. In the third scenario, the employment situation and the extent of its damage to natural resources is worse than in the previous two scenarios. In this scenario, the threat of environmental degradation is higher, and with the expansion of jobs, the rate of erosion, damage to natural resources, and the change of use of farms will be evident
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