journal of sustainable rural development

journal of sustainable rural development

Futures Studies of Nomadic Livelihood Sustainability: A case study of the Kalhor tribe in Tehran, Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Asghar Tahmasebi 1
shabnam keshavarz 2
hamed ghadermarzi 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Rural Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University of Tehran, Iran
2 PhD student in Geography and Rural Planning, Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jsrd.2026.573146.1238
Abstract
Purpose: The present study, adopting a Futures studies approach, aims to identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the sustainability of nomadic livelihoods among the Kalhor tribe residing in Mesgarabad village near Tehran, Iran.
Over the past few decades, this community has been influenced by challenges such as climate change, resource constraints, urban policies, and migration trends, which have driven a transition from their traditional pastoral nomadism toward urban marginalization and urban occupations, thereby posing a serious threat to their livelihood sustainability.
Methods: This research employs a descriptive-analytical method with a Futures studies approach. Data were collected through documentary studies, semi-structured in-depth interviews, and questionnaires. The statistical population consisted of 32 nomadic households residing in Mesgarabad village and 20 experts and specialists familiar with nomadic development issues.
Data were analyzed using the grounded theory method to identify variables, MICMAC software for structural analysis and identification of key drivers, and Scenario Wizard software for scenario development and evaluation.
Results: The findings of the structural analysis in MICMAC software showed that the key drivers of livelihood sustainability among the Kalhor tribe nomads include access to physical infrastructure, knowledge and awareness of income-generating activities, self-confidence, and social tolerance and adaptability.
Furthermore, the results of the scenario analysis in the Scenario Wizard software indicated that the likelihood of undesirable scenarios (critical and weak) is significantly higher than that of desirable scenarios, and that without targeted intervention, the livelihood of this community will move in an unfavorable direction.
Conclusion: The study revealed that the livelihood sustainability of the Kalhor tribe nomads in Tehran is highly dependent on key drivers, including access to physical infrastructure, employment-related knowledge and awareness, self-confidence, social tolerance and cohesion, development of nomadic markets, entrepreneurship, and livelihood diversification.
Scenario analysis further suggests that a desirable scenario is only achievable through the simultaneous realization of these drivers and the promotion of effective local governance; otherwise, the likelihood of undesirable scenarios is very high. Moreover, the study’s paradigmatic model places the traditional core of nomadic livelihood at the center, identifying climatic, urban, and institutional challenges as major threats, while highlighting enabling drivers (such as skill development and social capital) as key points of intervention. Ultimately, without a transition from centralized policymaking to participatory, integrated, and community-based governance, accompanied by sustainable resource management and foresight, the livelihood of this community will face serious threats.
Keywords
Nomadic livelihoods
sustainability
scenario analysis
futures studies
Kalhor tribe
Tehran
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journal of sustainable rural development

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 06 June 2026